Confidence

Confidence

The Confidence values are the answer to a question, and the wording of the question depends on whether you are Log Processing your data or not.

• For the "Log Processing" case the question is: What is the "Confidence" that the predicted value will fall within a factor of "Statistical Confidence Factor" of the actual value?

• For the "Linear Processing" case, the question is: What is the "Confidence" that the predicted value will fall within a +/- tolerance "Statistical Confidence Tolerance" of the actual value?

So if your "Statistical Confidence Factor" is 2.0 as shown for a Log Processing case above, the question is:

What is the "Confidence" that the predicted value will fall within a factor of 2.0 of the actual value?

The confidence is affected by your variogram and the quality of fit, but also by the range of data values and the local trends in the data where the Confidence estimate is being determined.

If your data spans several orders of magnitude, the confidences will be lower and if your data range is small the confidences will be higher depending also on the settings you use.

For example, consider the case where we are estimating soil porosity, and the input data values are ranging from 0.12 to 0.29. We would want to use "Linear Processing", and since our values fall within a tight range of numbers we might want to use a "Statistical Confidence Tolerance" that was 0.01. The confidence values we would compute would then be based upon the following question:

What is the "Confidence" that the predicted porosity value will be within 0.01 of the actual value?

If we were careless and used a "Statistical Confidence Tolerance" of 1.0 all of our confidences would be 100% since it would be impossible to predict any value that would be off by 1.0.

However, if we used a "Statistical Confidence Tolerance" of 0.0001, it is likely that our confidence values would drop off very quickly as we move away from the locations where measurements were taken.

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